Corn Market Sees Boost on Export Strength as EU Delays Whiskey Tariff Decision

Grain producers have seen a spark of good news in the market this week, as corn futures rallied and key international trade tensions eased—at least temporarily. Here’s what you need to know.

📈 Corn Prices Bounce on Strong Export Sales

On Thursday, March 21, the May 2025 corn futures contract surged, peaking near $4.70 per bushel, gaining 7 cents on the day. While new crop contracts such as December 2025 only saw modest gains, the rally was driven by surprisingly strong export sales, signaling bullish momentum for old crop corn.

According to USDA data, net corn export sales reached 59 million bushels, a 55% increase from the prior week and 45% higher than the four-week average. Major buyers included Japan, and the performance is notable given the relative absence of Chinese purchases.

“[Corn export sales] have been fantastic—second or third best book of the last 10 years,” noted Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. “And we’ve done it largely without China.”
(Source: USDA Export Sales Report – Week Ending March 14, 2025)

Grain market analysts also suggest that the USDA may be underestimating actual export demand, potentially setting the stage for future upward revisions.

In fact, the USDA’s March 2025 WASDE report held its 2024/25 corn export forecast at 2.45 billion bushels, despite evidence of accelerating shipments.

(USDA WASDE Report – March 2025)

For grain handlers, exporters, and producers managing logistics, this rebound may present short-term marketing opportunities—especially in areas where eastern rail basis is strengthening due to regional supply deficits.

🌍 EU Delays 50% Tariff on American Whiskey

In a move that could influence broader trade dynamics, the European Union has postponed its proposed 50% tariff on American whiskey. Originally scheduled for April 1, the levy has been pushed back to mid-April to allow for additional negotiations between the U.S. and EU over steel and aluminum tariffs.

This tariff had implications beyond whiskey—it’s part of a larger tit-for-tat trade battle that could expand to impact agriculture exports, especially if retaliatory measures follow.

President Trump recently threatened to impose a 200% tariff on European alcohol imports if the EU’s whiskey tariff moves forward.
(Source: Reuters – EU Delays Whiskey Tariff)

For agricultural producers, especially those exporting to the EU, this signals a need to stay alert to global policy shifts. Even though whiskey and alcohol may seem unrelated to grain, tariffs have a way of escalating—potentially spilling over into soy, corn, and other agricultural commodities.

“This is a negotiation tactic,” explained Matt Bennett on the Grain Markets and Other Stuff podcast. “But if tensions rise, the ripple effects could reach grain markets.”

📊 What This Means for Grain Producers

For producers in the Corn Belt and beyond, the current dynamics offer a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture:

• Corn demand is stronger than expected, which could tighten ending stocks and support prices.
  
• Trade uncertainty remains, especially with ongoing negotiations involving the EU and China.
  
• Weather is a wildcard, with 53% of corn-growing areas still experiencing drought conditions (U.S. Drought Monitor).
  

🚂 Staying Agile in Grain Handling Operations

As price volatility continues and export markets shift, grain producers and shippers need reliable, responsive tools to keep operations efficient. That includes everything from real-time remote control systems for railcars to streamlined loading and unloading logistics.

At Control Chief, we support the grain industry with locomotive remote control systems that help you move more product with less downtime—because when markets move fast, so should your equipment.

🔗 Useful Links & Sources:

• USDA Export Sales – Week Ending March 14, 2025
  
• USDA WASDE Report – March 2025
  
• U.S. Drought Monitor
  
• Reuters – EU Delays Tariff on American Whiskey
  
• Buenos Aires Grains Exchange Crop Estimate – Soybeans Down
  

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