How Much Corn is in South America, and How is it Affecting North American Grain Prices?

As of early 2025, South America’s corn production, particularly from Brazil and Argentina, plays a pivotal role in shaping global grain markets and directly influencing North American grain prices. With corn prices hitting $5 per bushel, the tightest market conditions since 2013, many are questioning just how much corn is actually available in South America and what impact it will have on prices.

USDA vs. Market Data: What’s the Real South American Corn Supply?

Recent USDA reports and independent market analysts have raised concerns about inconsistencies in South American crop forecasts. The latest projections reveal:

• Brazil’s corn production is forecasted at 124–127 million metric tons (MMT), depending on the source. The USDA estimates 127 MMT, while Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) reports a lower 119.74 MMT. The 7.3 million ton discrepancy stems from different assumptions regarding domestic demand and export potential. The USDA projects a 6% increase in exports, while Conab expects a 5% decline, prioritizing domestic consumption.
• Argentina’s corn production is expected to hit 49–55 MMT, with lower estimates due to prolonged drought conditions. The USDA has forecasted 55 MMT, but recent farmer reports suggest irreversible crop damage, potentially reducing output.

📺 Watch the full breakdown from Grain Markets & Other Stuff:
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🌍 Related Report:
USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

Planting Delays and Weather Challenges

Aside from discrepancies in estimates, weather-related planting delays in Brazil’s key regions are compounding concerns:

• Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top corn-producing state, saw planting at only 1% complete as of late January 2025 due to untimely rains. Such delays could reduce yields and tighten global supply.
• Argentina’s drought continues to threaten corn production, with some analysts expecting further downward revisions to crop estimates.

Impact on North American Grain Prices

The uncertainties and irregularities in South American production estimates have direct implications for North American grain prices. In 2024, U.S. farmers faced financial difficulties due to plummeting grain prices, influenced by high production in countries like Brazil. Despite favorable growing conditions leading to record corn and soybean crops in the U.S., revenues were reduced, exacerbated by high input costs. wsj.com

However, as of early 2025, there are signs of recovery. Corn prices in the U.S. have shown improvement ahead of the 2025 planting season, with futures increasing by over 6% to around $4.89 per bushel. This uptick offers a glimmer of hope for returning to profitability, though challenges such as potential tariffs and global competition remain. wsj.com

📺 For additional insights, check out AgDay’s latest market report:
AgDay 12/2024 by FarmJournal

Questions That Remain

While the USDA and other agencies forecast strong production in South America, skepticism remains high. The key questions now are:

• Will final harvested numbers match these optimistic forecasts?
• How will global demand shift if South America underproduces?
• Could we see a surge in U.S. corn exports, further increasing prices?

With the tightest corn market since 2013, these factors will be crucial for North American grain producers planning their next moves. Staying informed through USDA updates, global production reports, and market trends will be essential for navigating this unpredictable market.

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